Jobs: The Measure Of The Economy.

Well, when my neighbor looses his job, that's a recession. If I should loose my job, that would be a depression. To paraphrase, the late President …

Moderna, And the Novel Vaccine.

Fifteen Months ago a news story came over the wires that a highly contagious new Corona Virus had been discovered in China. It would prove to be one …

The Stimulus, Act 2

Yesterday, the Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen attempted to raise the curtain on Act 2, of The Great Stimulus. Our country's on going …

The New Citizen Consumer.

The American consumer is the most powerful commercial force in the world. With a capability to direct billions, no make that actually trillions of …

Supply Chain: By The Numbers.

The “Supply Chain” it is perhaps the most important current issue facing the global economy. It's clear that most of the developed world is in a full …

The American Consumer: For One Brief Shinning Moment.

It's been an incredible week. Once again we've seen all time highs in the major equity averages. Although the novelty of that's may have worn off.

 

We saw a couple of outstanding quarterly …

A Lot Rests On Today's GDP Report.

So here we area about an hour before the big release on the Nation's first look at the first quarter's GDP, the Gross Domestic Product.

 

And right …

Interest: Is It Income Or Expense?

Precisely at 2 pm eastern time this afternoon, The Federal Reserve will announce their latest decision on short term interest rates. And they will thereby set the Fed Funds Rate. It will be …

The Problem With Stimulus: It Doesn't Last Forever.

The problem with Stimulus, as the problem with Christmas, someday it must end. Santa goes back home, and the gifts stop.

 

It's a realization that has …

Here Comes Reality.

It's just been 3 ½ weeks since the First Quarter of 2021 closed. And this is the week that we'll see the real numbers from that quarter start rolling …

The Biden Tax Proposal: Taking America Out Of The Competition. Part 2.

Tim Cooke, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella. There names are as common as the nearest newspaper, or website. These are the leaders of the largest …

The Biden Tax Proposal: Taking America Out Of The Competition.

Last week, through much bally-hoo, President Joe Biden presented the details of his up-coming tax proposal. The newly elected President has been consistent in proposing a plan that will …

The Japanese Price Problem.

Last night, for the sixth month in a row, the Japanese reported that prices declined in their country. A sure sign that deflation is raising it's ugly head.

 

This is beginning to get serious.

It's Independence v. 3.0

Three times in American History, there has been a moment of Independence. A moment when some have arisen and declared that they want to be separate and independent from the prevailing …

Wall Street Nixes Netflix's Pics.

On Monday, you may recall, we discussed how unforgiving Wall Street would be for any company that did not live up to it's earnings expectations.

 

And …

The "Wacky" Chinese Economy.

As Americans, we naturally look upon the Chinese Economy, as not up to the standards of ours. We prefer our free market Capitalism, to the Chinese centrally planned communism. We point to …

It's An Earnings Layup.

If ever there was an earnings season that should be a layup, this is it. Over the next few weeks earnings will take center stage. As the market …

US And Chinese Industrial Production, Not Looking So Good.

So, last night China released some surprising Economic Numbers. Which may indicate that the economic gulf that's existed between China and The USA is …

The Inflation Enigma.

Earlier this week you may have noticed that the inflation rate came in at 2.6% on an annual basis. And it was easy to conclude that inflation is beginning to heat up, just like Wall Street …

A Very Different Earnings Season.

Today begins a very special earnings season. It's the time when Wall Street seriously measures just how far this economy has recovered from the Covid 19 Lock Down of last year. You'll …

“Crowding Out” The Next Big Trend In The Economy.

Remember when you bought that first new car, or your first home, or perhaps began paying off your student loans for the first time? How those new monthly payments really crimped your style. …

The 2021 Economy Needs An Asterisk.

We are after all beginning the Second Quarter of the Year. And as you'll remember this quarter of last year was the worst of the worst for the …

The Biden Administration And The Supply Chain.

In a week and a half, the first 100 days of the new Biden Administration will come to an end. The sheer number of new initiatives has been impressive. Who can forget the picture of the new …

Jamie Diamon: Navigating Between Capitalism and Collectivism.

US Bankers are among the most adaptive and flexible businessmen and women in the world. They have to be, they operate in an ever-changing business environment and an ever-changing …

The Chinese Economy Overheats, While US Remains On Stimulus.

I don't ever recall a time when the world's two largest economies were headed in the opposite direction, as they are now.

 

Yesterday, both Bloomberg and the Financial Times reported that …

Archegos Capital, Act II Coming Up.

Over night we saw a lot of continuing news on the Archegos Capital Management Scandal. I call it a scandal because there is much to go around here.

 

Archegos Capital And The Constant Focus On Return.

It's been a long time since we've seriously heard someone on Wall Street speak of Capital Preservation. It's really not what people want to hear about.

 

Return is the topic of the day. And …

Special Report: The Payroll Numbers.

Additionally, many of the government bureaus which produce the economic reports that we rely on are also open this morning. Included in this group is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which …

Two Critical Errors In Biden's American Jobs Act.

Yesterday, speaking in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania President Joe Biden introduced his new American Jobs Act. It was a sunny upbeat presentation of new government spending for the …

Biden's Double Minded Recovery Plan.

Two millennia ago, we were warned to avoid the “double-minded man.” That kind of person is unstable. That it is best to avoid them in your personal life, as well as your business dealings.

 

Archegos Capital Management: Overdosed On Leverage.

Such is the way that the Prime Brokers work on Wall Street. They deal with the cream of the crop. The very top of the investment world: The Hedge Funds.

 

Hedge Funds are like no other …

How Trade Policy Is Crushing The Stimulus.

The report I'm referring to was the Balance of Trade Report released last Friday.

 

Now, I suppose, that we're all so used to seeing bad trade reports that we didn't spend a lot of time on …

The World Through Chinese Eyes.

Yesterday we saw the first Press Conference of the newly installed President Biden. Biden took no questions on China, and only briefly indicated that …

The Two Sides Of Stimulus: Labor and Profit.

And the timing couldn't be better, because in just a few minutes we will get two reports that will detail the two sides of these stimulus programs. …

Biden And Trump: The Two Stimulus Plans.

Today Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell will testify before the House Committee on Financial Services, tomorrow he will deliver the same remarks before the Senate Committee on …

We Could Pay For 10 Pandemics.

The along came February/March of 2020, and all our lives changed dramatically. The Covid Pandemic struck. Closed shops, social distancing, self-quarantine became a way of life.

 

But so to …

The Fed Offer's "More Punch!"

Last week Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, held his periodic News Conference following the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve's …

At The Equinox, Everything In Balance?

Tomorrow is the Vernal Equinox. Here in the Northern Hemisphere, the beginning of Spring. A time when everything is in balance: the sun crosses the horizon, nighttime and daytime are equal.

 

We've Found The Epicenter Of Unemployment.

Each Thursday morning, promptly at 8:30 am eastern time, the US Department of Labor dutifully reports the latest numbers on initial and continuing …

Jerome Powell In A Tough Spot!

At 2:30 pm this afternoon, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. It's all part of the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

 

From Stimulus To Constraint, The Fastest Ever.

I have a mantra for you today. Just repeat this over and over, as we go through this discussion. “Today is history, tomorrow is now.”


The Fed And Bonds: Act 1.

This week the curtain will ring up on the latest drama, in the long history of Wall Street. This week we will see the Bond Market and The Federal Reserve, as the Fed's Open Market committee …

Inflation: Wall Street's Number One Fear.

Yesterday President Joe Biden signed into law the new Economic Stimulus Plan. This is the third Economic Impact Package aimed at providing relief to …

An Anniversary To Remember.

I know, it seems much longer than 12 months.

 

But it was on this date, March 11th, just a year ago that the World Health Organization declared that we were in a Pandemic.

 

And like the …

The Latest Stimulus Package: An Accountant's Nightmare.

The latest 1.9 Trillion Dollar Stimulus Package is currently workings its way through Congress. Passed by both the House and Senate, the Package is …

Is ThePresidential Honeymoon Over?

Those first few days of a new Presidency are traditionally referred to as the “Honey Moon Period.” It is usually the time when the President and Congress are most closely aligned. As it is …

Lock-Down Or Open Up? Five States Choose Different Directions.

Well, this is the biggest contrast in economic policy among the states, since income tax. It was the decision last week of Governor Greg Abbott of …

China Highlights Strong Economy At NPC.

This weekend sets the stage for what will be the most important aspects of international trade and geopolitics for 2021.

 

It all began last night with …

An Employment Recession Like No Other.

This morning, as happens each week, the Department of Labor once again delivered the latest numbers on initial claims for unemployment.

 

This is a sad tally of the number of people who lined …

Are We In A Stock Market Bubble?

“It's easy to recognize a Bubble,” an old trader once told me, “just wait for the crash that follows.”

 

Funny, he's right of course, but it's less …

How The Three Largest Economies Weathered 2020.

What a year 2020 was. Economically it was one of the most destructive years this country has ever lived through. We set a record for the worst economic decline in a quarter, ever. In that …

Income, Income, Just What Is Our Income?

A few weeks ago we received a check for $600. If all goes well this week, we should receive another check for an estimated $1400. Did you earn that …

Markets Stumble At Nation's Abrupt Change of Direction.

Well, It was political theater at its best. There sat the newly installed President Joe Biden, at presumably the Resolute Desk, and before him a …

Out Of Balance: The Story Of The US Economy.

Today we have an economy that is equally as unbalanced as the one which headed into the Great Depression. Again this economy is driven by 3/4ers on one side of the production/consumption …

Is This Anyway To Run A Recovery?

This week we get a rare look at the three government sectors who are leading the Economic Recovery; The Federal Reserve, the Nation's Central Bank, the Congress, and all of the State and …

What Do Democrats Have Against Small Businesses?

So I read on. Anxious to learn about how this Democratic Proposal would support the part of the economy that I'm most familiar with. As a former …

Who Will Defend The US Dollar? Jerome Powell?

Using the admittedly volatile forex markets we can see a trend emerging for the Dollar, at it is disturbing, to say the least.

 

The Dollar began the …

"Non-Essential" The Economic Death Sentence.

This month marks the one-year anniversary of perhaps the Nation's most destructive economic policy...ever: The Designation of certain businesses as …

Supply Chain Disruption.

As we watch Winter Storm Uri move up the East Coast: we're seeing yet another disruption in the nation's supply chain. That delicate, ever-moving combination of ships, trains trucks, and …

It's Reliable v. Unreliable Electricity.

Nature has a way of exposing man's folly. When I lived in California, it was often earthquakes that exposed the poorly constructed building. In …

Where's Bitcoin Headed? Ask JP Morgan.

The big bank, JP Morgan Chase, may have a lot more to do with the future of Bitcoin that you'd imagine.

All This Monetary Stimulus Is Like "Pushing On A String."

There is a growing consensus on Wall Street that Inflation is right around the corner.

 

And when you first look at the numbers, that seems like a reasonable explanation of what is occurring …

Powell Refuses To Call Out Governors As The Real Cause Of Unemployment.

The reason we have a weak labor market is as clear as the nose on your face. It is the elephant in the room. And it is the one thing that Powell …

Why There Is Little Inflation...For Now.

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest reading on the US Inflation Rate.

 

And this had to be one of the most widely anticipated reports to come out of Washington …

How Is All This Stimulus Distorting The Economy.

With all this largess coming out of Washington, the question is beginning to be asked, is this too much of a good thing. The amount of economic distortion that is beginning to be felt in …

The Disappearing American Corporation.

Well, We're right in the middle of earnings season, with just over half of the publicly traded companies having reported their results, and half to …

Will Amazon Become A Union Shop?

It's the kind of news that sends a shiver up the spine of any Chief Executive. Even one, who is one of the richest men in the world, and just …

The Game Stop Saga: Real Capitalism Or Something Else?

Well, I have to confess that when I first saw the news about Game Stop and all the others like AMC and American Airlines: I was tickled.

 

I'm no fan of short-sellers. And especially Short …

Amazon And Alphabet/Google Two Companies In Transition.

Amazon and Alphabet, two of the leading companies in the nation. And yet as we saw yesterday, two firms in transition. Their term, not mine.


When Shorting Becomes An Offensive Weapon.

There is a pernicious evil, that happens when Shorting Stock becomes an offensive weapon. It is an evil that will literally rip the guts out of our financial markets. This type of market …

Wall Street Reacts To Biden's Expansive, New Social Programs.

Want an inside indicator of where this economy, and ultimately stocks and bonds are headed? Well, look no further than the latest moves out of …

What's Really Happening With Game Stop.

There really is a scandal here, but it's not at all what you're reading in the press or hearing on the news. The Scandal here is between big monied Hedge Funds and the Wall Street Brokers …

If I Could Tell Presient Biden Just One Thing.

So, if there is one thing that I could tell our new President it is to: Open up this economy, as fast and as far as he can.

 


If I Could Tell President Biden Just One Thing.

So, if there is one thing that I could tell our new President it is to: Open up this economy, as fast and as far as he can.

Game Stop And The Great Bear Raid.

Well. You may have read about the big price jump in Game Stop and a couple of other small companies that have recently come under the gave of a group of retail investors over at the Social …

The Cost Of Fear.

Fear is perhaps the most overwhelming of all human emotions. When you are truly fearful is difficult, if not impossible, to think of anything else.

Janet "A Little Inflation Is A Good Thing" Yellen.

Yesterday Janet Yellen was confirmed by the United States Senate as the 78th Secretary of the Treasury. Yellen thereby, has achieved several “firsts” in her new position.

She is the first …

Wall Street Looks Across The "Valley."

Wall Street is convinced, that from here on things will get much better on the pandemic front. That we will see a fairly dramatic re-opening of the …

Japan Slips Into Deflation...Why?

Deflation, its a word that will send a shiver up any Economist's Spine.

Last night, Japan revealed that prices, at the consumer level, had fallen 1.2% in the month of December. Let's look …

Memo To ThePresident: It's Freedom That Makes This Place Work.

It was something that we, as a nation, have been doing every 4 years, for over two centuries now: inaugurate a new President. We've done it in war and peace, boom times and depressions. But …

The Big Four Banks: The Most Political Of All Creatures.

The Big Four American Banks: Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America, and JP Morgan Chase, are the beating heart of this country's financial system.

They are the primary instruments through …

The Chinese Economy Puts The World On Notice.

While the rest of the world was preoccupied by the happenings in Washington this weekend, the Peoples Republic of China put up some economic numbers that were simply stunning, and …

How China Hijacked America's Vision Of Globalism.

America's Vision of Globalism goes back at least a hundred years to the Presidency of Woodrow Wilson, and his League of Nations. An effort to bring peace to the world after the destruction …

Big Tech Exposes Their Achilles Heal.

The action this week by Big Tech, Google, Twitter, Facebook, Amazon and the rest, have created the best environment for startups in a generation. Empowered their competition. And likely …

Is This Bull MArket Losing It's Leadership?

Bull markets have leaders. Innovative companies that lead the country into a new economy, and who's stocks power the market to higher and higher …

The Cost Of Censorship.

How Much does it cost to censor a sitting President? About $4 ½ billion dollars. At least that was the market value lost by Twitter after they had …

Big Tech's All Out Cyber War.

This weekend Jack Dorsey, at Twitter shut off all of President Trump's Accounts. And thereby fired the first shot in what promises to be an all out Cyber War.

Since Trump descended the …

The Election's Gordian Knot.

Today, as he sits in his office, Donald Trump is presented with a similar dilemma. A Gordian Knot, if you will, that seems unable to be solved.

The …

What President Joe Biden Has In Store For Investors.

On Wednesday, the US Congress certified Joe Biden as the next President of the United States. He enters the office as the oldest person to ever hold …

the Genius Of Incremental Investing.

The events in Washington reminded me, once again, of the importance of Incremental Investing.

Just yesterday, we saw tremendous turmoil in out country. People traveled from great distance …

The Last Time We Lost Faith In Government.

So Mitt Romney got on the plane last night, headed back to Washington DC. Mitt as you know is the Senator from Utah, and one of the most successful …

Why The 7 Cities Involved In Election Fraud Would Not Withstand A Real Audit.

Tomorrow the Electoral College Results will be presented to a joint session of Congress. At that session, more than a hundred congressmen and eleven …

Is It Still USA Full Faith and Credit?

The CARES Act is the largest "purchase" in history. How will we pay for it?

The Secret Of Relative Performance.

It was back in the 1970's, I was a cub broker just learning the ropes. And the biggest trend on Wall Street was the Sky Rocketing Price of Oil. In fact it was an historic market for all …

The Sugar-High Economy.

Yesterday, President Trump signed into law the latest Appropriations Bill. And although Congress is still working out just how much of a Sugar-High this legislation will work out to be. …

Our Myopic Lack Of Public Debate.

The United States Senate calls themselves the world's “Greatest Deliberative Body.”

Unfortunately, that's no longer the case. And I'm afraid it hasn't been for some time.

The Legislative …

I Am Capital.

The Season Of Giving.

But no matter your belief, this is a special time, when you reach into your pocket and give. And the wonderful thing about this country, is that …

Why Budget, When You Can Just Spend? A Look At The Government's Financial Management.

So things really got underway in the last couple of days, when a joint committee finally put down in writing just what the governmet can spend in the remaining fiscal year.

And what a piece …

Where Did Today's Selling Come From?

Stocks opened sharply lower this morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down about 200 points on it's open, and the Standard and Poors %00 Index down nearly 1%.

For investors this …

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