Covid 19

Fear Versus Risk

Fear Versus Risk

Fear is an unreasonable emotion. That once it has you in its grip, can control all of your actions and responses. Risk on the other hand, is the measure of a hazard or loss. These two are as different as night and day. Although they both try to assess the potential downside of any event, one uses our rational thought and control, while the other uses just blind emotion. And ultimately leads us to become out of control, reacting in a manner that really makes no sense, and in fact can do great harm to ourselves. As a nation, our reaction to the corona virus, is threatening to move from a rational risk based response, to the pure emotion of fear.

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China and the Supply Chain.

China and the Supply Chain.

On Sunday morning, US Time, the Chinese released their latest balance of trade numbers. It was a total shock. Analysts had expected a trade surplus of nearly $25 billion dollars. Down slightly from China's usual surplus, but still solidly in the black for the Chinese Trade Machine. Instead we got a trade deficit of $7 Billion dollars. Way out of the expectation of any on Wall Street.

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John Deere and the Two Tiered Market.

John Deere and the Two Tiered Market.

So its against this gloomy background, that something extraordinary happened. A company which has been relegated to the financial backwater lately, scored a major gain on Friday. And its not just because of what you read in the headlines. John Deere and Company, the old line maker of those distinctive green and yellow tractors, reported solid, if not spectacular earnings.

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Apple Changes Its Message.

Apple Changes Its Message.

Late Monday evening, Apple posted an update on their Investor Relations Page. It was the President's Day Holiday, and obviously Apple was anxious to down-play this news. The news was that Apple would have to reduce their Quarterly Guidance. Two factors were reducing Apple sales: the first was slow down in Apple iPhone production due to the Covid-19 Virus affecting China. And the second, related news was that Apple Stores throughout China were closed also due to the pandemic.

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